The figures behind the field-first framework
The framework above is not abstract caution; it is a response to documented, quantified failure modes. Three numbers from the WHO and the peer-reviewed literature explain why we grade as we do.
≥5% — the threshold that retires an antigen target
Most P. falciparum rapid tests detect histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2). Parasite strains carrying deletions of the pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 genes produce no HRP2, so an HRP2-only test reads negative in a genuinely — sometimes severely — infected patient. WHO recommends switching a programme to a non-HRP2 (pLDH-based) test once these deletions cause ≥5% of RDTs to return false negatives. By 2023 the WHO Malaria Threat Maps recorded pfhrp2/3 deletion reports in 40 of 47 countries surveyed, with false-negative rates reaching as high as 80% in the worst-affected settings of the Horn of Africa. A diagnostic platform graded only on its clean-strain sensitivity hides this entirely — which is why our reviews treat antigen-deletion coverage as a named criterion.
30°C+ — where the datasheet quietly stops applying
Published sensitivity and specificity figures are generated under controlled storage with trained readers. Many lateral-flow assays carry a labelled storage ceiling around +30°C, yet a closed diagnostics box on a tarmac airstrip can pass +40°C within hours. A test that meets its specification in a reference laboratory does not necessarily meet it after three weeks at ambient at a health post. We treat that real-world degradation as part of accuracy, not a footnote to it — and recommend a temperature logger dedicated to the diagnostics box, separate from the vaccine cold chain.
The window period — a blind spot no engineering closes
Every serological test has an interval after infection during which its target marker has not yet risen above the detection threshold. Antibody-only HIV tests have the longest window; fourth-generation tests that also detect p24 antigen shorten it but do not close it. Likewise, a dengue NS1 antigen test is informative only across roughly days one to seven of fever — a day-six negative is uninformative, not reassuring. Timing, not just accuracy, decides what a result means; our category guides make the window a first-order consideration, not a caveat.